Base metals generally rose, with alumina up over 4%, while ferrous metals series all fell. New York gold declined, and crude oil surged [[Overnight market]].

SMM May 9 News:

Metal Market:

Overnight, the domestic market's base metals nearly all rose, with SHFE copper up 0.72%, SHFE tin up 0.3%, and SHFE nickel up 0.26%. SHFE lead remained flat at 16,875 yuan/mt. SHFE aluminum rose 0.46%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.27%. Additionally, alumina rose 4.05%.

Overnight, the ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore down 0.86%, stainless steel slightly down, rebar down 1.3%, and HRC down 1.13%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.29%, and coke fell 0.91%.

Overnight, LME base metals generally rose, with LME copper up 0.58%. LME lead fell 0.26%, and LME aluminum rose 1.09%. LME zinc rose 0.75%, LME tin rose 0.52%, and LME nickel rose 0.17%.

Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold fell 2.4%, and COMEX silver fell 0.57%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 1.81%, and SHFE silver fell 0.12%.

As of 8:01 on May 9, overnight closing prices

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic:

[Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao: Sales from trade-in policies for consumer goods exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024; in 2025, we will build on this momentum and expand the scope and intensity] The magazine *Qizhi* recently published an article titled "Vigorously Boost Consumption, Expand Domestic Demand in All Aspects, and Promote Sustained Economic Rebound and Improvement" by Wang Wentao, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Commerce. The article pointed out that upgrading commodity consumption is crucial to stabilizing the overall consumption market. Commodity consumption has a large scale and strong driving force, and to stabilize the basic consumption market, we must first focus on commodity consumption. Currently, the main issue facing commodity consumption is insufficient effective demand. We will explore multiple approaches from the demand side to tap into the potential for upgrading commodity consumption. We will expand the scope and intensity of implementing trade-in policies for consumer goods. In 2024, sales from trade-in policies for consumer goods exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, effectively promoting consumption recovery. In 2025, we will build on this momentum and expand the scope and intensity. In terms of intensity, the support funds from ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be expanded to 300 billion yuan, doubling from the previous year. In terms of scope, for the first time, subsidies for purchasing new digital products such as mobile phones will be implemented, and the categories of home appliances eligible for trade-in subsidies will be expanded from "8+N" to "12+N", appropriately expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrappage and renewal. We will improve the subsidy application process to enable consumers to enjoy policy benefits more quickly and effectively. We will carry out pilot work for the reform of automobile circulation and consumption. We will support local governments in actively exploring and pioneering efforts to eliminate restrictive measures on automobile consumption and develop the automotive aftermarket, accelerating the release of consumption potential across all links in the entire chain of automobile purchase and use.Promote consumption of high-quality foreign trade products. Organize the "China Tour for High-Quality Foreign Trade Products" campaign to expand both online and offline channels, facilitating greater access of quality foreign trade products to the domestic market. Advance consumption of trendy domestic products. Continuously promote the innovative development of time-honored brands, host a series of featured "Time-Honored Brand Carnival" events, and create growth points for the consumption of trendy domestic products. (Cailian Press)

【Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Will Continue to Closely Monitor Market Changes to Maintain Monetary and Financial Stability】In response to the US Fed's interest rate decision, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated that the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged was in line with market expectations. The recent series of tariff measures announced by the US authorities have added uncertainty to local inflation and economic prospects, leading the Fed to adopt a more wait-and-see attitude in its monetary policy. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority pointed out that changes in US tariff measures and the trend of US interest rates will be the focus of attention in the financial markets, with significant uncertainties remaining. Global financial markets are inevitably subject to fluctuations due to these factors. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasized that it will continue to closely monitor market changes to maintain monetary and financial stability.

【Shanghai Gold Exchange Issues Notice on Continuously Strengthening Market Risk Prevention】The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that, given the significant fluctuations in precious metal prices in the international market recently and the continued presence of uncertainties, in order to prevent potential market risks arising from sharp market fluctuations, all member units are requested to formulate emergency risk response plans, maintain the stable operation of the market, and promptly implement corresponding risk control measures. Investors are advised to take precautions against risks, reasonably control their positions, invest rationally, and effectively safeguard their legitimate rights and interests.

US Dollar:

The US dollar index rose by 0.75% overnight to 100.63. The US dollar rebounded on Thursday amid easing global trade tensions. According to CCTV News, on May 8 local time, the UK and the US reached an agreement on the terms of a tariff and trade deal. The UK government agreed to make concessions on importing US food and agricultural products in exchange for the US reducing tariffs on British car exports. The US side still retains a benchmark tariff of 10%.

Other Currencies:

The Bank of England lowered its benchmark interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25% on Thursday to support the UK's weakening economy, in line with the expectations of economists and traders. Bank of England Governor Bailey: The overall inflation rate over the past year has been hovering around the 2% target level, albeit slightly above average, and inflationary pressures are expected to gradually ease. Since the start of interest rate cuts in August last year, the Bank of England's interest rate has been lowered by 1 percentage point.Since the Bank of England began cutting interest rates last year, it has continued to reduce borrowing costs each quarter. (Huitong Finance)

The Norges Bank kept borrowing costs unchanged at its 11th consecutive meeting and reiterated its plan to start easing policy later this year. The bank maintained its deposit rate at 4.5% on Thursday, the highest level in over 16 years, in line with market expectations. The bank reiterated that borrowing costs would be lowered "during 2025." As this meeting was a so-called interim meeting, officials did not release new economic forecasts or interest rate outlooks. "There is uncertainty about future trade policies," Deputy Governor Pal Longva said in a statement. "This could lead interest rate outlooks to develop in different directions." The Norges Bank stands out among its global peers, repeatedly postponing the start of post-pandemic easing policies, mainly due to the resilience of its energy-rich economy and inflation risks stemming from a weaker krone. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policies also supports the Norges Bank's wait-and-see approach, echoing the stance of the US Fed. The US Fed kept borrowing costs unchanged on Wednesday and indicated that it would not rush to cut interest rates. (Caijing)

Macro:

Today, data including China's April trade balance, year-on-year growth in China's April exports, year-on-year growth in China's April imports, Switzerland's Q2 consumer confidence index (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year growth in China's April M2 money supply, China's year-to-date social financing scale as of April, China's year-to-date new RMB loans as of April, changes in Canada's April employment, and Canada's April unemployment rate will be released.

Also worth noting: Vice Premier He Lifeng of the State Council will visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 for talks with Swiss leaders and relevant parties. During his visit, as the Chinese head of the China-US economic and trade talks, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with his US counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Bessent. In addition, speeches by Bank of England Governor Bailey, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams (delivering a keynote speech), Fed Governor Cugler, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Fed Governor Barr, and speeches by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller are also worth following.

Crude Oil:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose overnight, with WTI up 3.27% and Brent up 3.81%. Oil prices rebounded sharply as easing trade tensions boosted market risk appetite.

However, OPEC's plan to increase oil output is putting pressure on oil prices.A survey shows that despite the implementation of plans to increase production, OPEC's crude oil production in April may decline slightly. This is because the US has once again attempted to curb oil flows, leading to a reduction in Venezuela's supply, while production in Iraq and Libya has also decreased. The survey, released on Thursday, indicates that OPEC's production last month was 26.6 million barrels per day (bpd), a decrease of 30,000 bpd from March. Production cuts in some oil-producing countries have offset the impact of increased supply from Iran. Additionally, the Kazakh Ministry of Energy, an OPEC member country that exceeded its production quota, stated on Thursday that Kazakhstan has no plans to cut its crude oil and condensate production in May.

The oil market remains highly sensitive to changes in trade and geopolitical situations, suggesting that volatility is far from over. (Webstock Inc.)